I was never any good at science at school, apart from locust sexing, the concept of which, being a normal 13 year old boy, I found hilarious.
Then, when I started writing books on quasi-scientific subjects, that all changed, and I have developed a great admiration for the people who make a career of it, the processes they follow, and the safeguards they apply to their work.
And the big problem of science seems to me to be Karl Popper’s premise of falsification by which in science, something can be proved false, or likely, but never true.
Thus it is for climate change. 98% of them, or whatever percentage it actually is, can demonstrate the fact of it, the man-made nature of it, and the effect which it will have on all our lives whether we deal with it urgently or not. But the premise of falsification gives the small percentage who disagree just a small enough hole to wriggle through into the heart of the argument and say: ‘you’re wrong’. And of course there is always that atomically small chance that they might be right.
For me it’s easy. I see no conspiracy. I trust the majority of the scientists to be right on this one, and I have seen the NASA time-lapse images of the reducing polar ice cap. Besides, I’m a Sagittarian, and I like things very, very simple. And if I fly less miles, and eat less meat, change my car (£12995 ONO) it’s not going to hurt anyone, not even the most fervent denier.
My issue, and yours probably, is what else then to do about it? Fine, you can make all the informed personal changes in your life you choose to (and the link below, where the profit of the sale can go to your nominated independent bookshop, leads you to an excellent and cheerful guide), but what do you do if you feel that Power- in all its forms- isn’t really yet listening?
Answer: I don’t know. Whilst I believe that many politicians, including in the current government, take it all very seriously, as do many CEOs and newspapers, I am left with an overwhelming feeling that, as a species, we collectively think it is something that science will get us through, and that we can basically continue as normal without making big and permanent changes. I don’t think we can. This is way beyond left-right, town-country, west-east. This is the new norm. And the omelette isn’t egg-free, which means that it can’t be the ‘no diminution of your living standards’ so beloved of politicians; eggs, and plenty of them, will need to be cracked. Above all, we have to stop worshipping at the altar of growth for growth’s sake but, hang on, you don’t need a lecture from me.
Which is why you would have found me last night at the Extinction Rebellion meeting in Godalming, torn between a sense of subversive activism, and my middle class unease at rocking the boat. Along with Caroline, I just wanted to find out what it was all about.
You probably know all this, but ‘XR’ wants three things: the truth to be told, urgent action now, and the creation of a Citizen’s Assembly to guide the politics of climate change. And they intend to achieve that by a mixture of informed lobbying, mobilisation of media and non-violent direct action. They set up headline rebellion weeks (such as Trafalgar Square back in the Autumn) and campaign on local issues, too.
What was discussed in the meeting is not my business to disseminate, and two and a half hours wasn’t enough time to work out whether or not it was for me long term. Probably not. As an ex-soldier, I have a simple need for an aim and a detailed action plan, rather than stuff like jazz hands and ‘role holder for the movement of movements’. And I can’t shake off my belief that inconveniencing large swathes of the population probably isn’t the best way of bringing them on board.
But I’ll tell you this. There were some mighty impressive people in that room: civil servants, scientists, retailers, farmers included, and I have never been in a meeting of such exquisite courtesy and good intent. I used to laugh at the idea of sitting in a circle and raising your hand to speak: not any more, I don’t. These groups are getting bigger and more organised, and it would be an epic mistake to assume, as one friend did over Christmas, that they are simply ‘the Greenham Common/CND rent-a-mob lot’ with another cause to bleat about.
I’ll go again, even if just once or twice, partly because if I don’t I’ll never know, and partly because I want to do my bit to create that necessary ‘dilemma’ for government.
The clock is ticking. What’s the plan, Boris?
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